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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."